There is a bumpy ride ahead for most provincial economies in 2007 and even Alberta and BC are to ratchet down, a new forecast from economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank warns.
"It's going to be a difficult ride in the next few quarters."
The most likely scenario is that Ontario will grow by 1.8 per cent this year and 2.0 per cent next year, the TD forecast states. While those numbers are very low for a province that has traditionally carried the Canadian economy, they mask a steeper slowdown expected during the last half of this year and the first half of next year, Mr. Burleton said.
The Ontario economy has recorded only minimal growth over the past 3-4 quarters, as its key manufacturing sector has been sideswiped by a strong Canadian dollar and high energy prices. Since the start of the year, another 40,000 jobs have been lost in manufacturing, bringing the total drop since 2004 to more than 100,000 jobs. What’s more, with the U.S. economy now showing signs of softening, manufacturing output and employment will remain under pressure over the next few quarters. In 2007, TD Economics projects auto production to dip for the second consecutive year, as North American sales continue to pull back and Ford and General Motors forge ahead with their restructurings.
Quebec has similar problems. Tourism is suffering and the forest industry has been losing jobs. The future looks dim for both those industries, the TD forecast argues, projecting a dismal 2.0 percent growth this year and 1.9 percent next year.
Neither province has much hope of a recovery to normal economic growth rates until 2008, TD says.
“For the manufacturing-based economies of Central Canada and some parts of the Atlantic [region] that have recently struggled under the weight of a high Canadian dollar and elevated energy prices, the dampening influence of weaker demand growth stateside has effectively quashed any hopes of a meaningful recovery until 2008.”
CIBC World Markets Inc. has a similar forecast for the Ontario economy, although it also expects the central bank to move decisively to revitalize Central Canada, economist Warren Lovely says. He projects that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates four times in the next year, “not only to restrain the loonie, but also revive a badly sagging Central Canadian economy.”
He also sees manufacturing weakness spilling over into the broader economy — a repeat of the economic pain of the early 1990s.
Even the western provinces will feel a pinch from the global economic slowdown, economists say — although the divide between Alberta and the rest of the country will continue for a couple of years. “As the headwinds begin to blow from the south, the respectable overall growth trends in Canada are masking an increasingly skewed regional picture,” TD says.
“We not only concur that growth in the Alberta economy has passed its peak in the current cycle, but that the risks of a hard landing have been rising.”
The most probable scenario, however, is that the Alberta economy will be able to avoid the boom-bust cycle of the past, and coast gradually to growth rates of about 3 per cent a year, down from the 6.8 per cent expected this year. Prices for oil, gas and other commodities are sliding, the TD forecast says, and some capital spending plans will likely be delayed or cancelled.
“A softening in conditions in resource markets, including crude oil and forestry, will knock both Alberta and B.C. off their high growth horses over the next few years.”
CIBC, however, was far more upbeat about the prospects for the West, predicting that massive capital spending will continue, with commodities prices remaining high. Alberta's growth should continue to reach almost 7 per cent next year, Mr. Lovely forecasts.
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CIBC World Markets Inc.